Predictors of health care provider anticipatory guidance provision for older drivers

Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of health care provider (HCP) driving safety/cessation-related anticipatory guidance provision and predictors of driving safety-related anticipatory guidance provision by HCPs.

Methods: HCPs in several central/upper Midwest states were surveyed about frequency of anticipatory guidance provision (n = 265).

Results: More than half of HCPs stated that they frequently or always provide driving safety/cessation-related anticipatory guidance to patients aged 85 or older, 38.7% provided this guidance to patients aged 75 to 84, and 13.7% to patients aged 65 to 74. Predictors of driving safety/cessation-related anticipatory guidance provision differed by patient age. For patients aged 65–74, HCP personal experience with a motor vehicle crash (either the HCP themselves or a friend/family member) was significant in predicting anticipatory guidance provision. However, for patients aged 75 and older, significant predictors included HCP rural practice, HCP age, and percentage of HCP patients who were older adults.

Conclusion: HCP counseling provision related to driving issues differs by patient age and several HCP characteristics, including HCP rurality, age, and personal experience with motor vehicle crashes. Because aging results in physical and mental changes that affect driving and can be identified by HCPs, HCPs are in a position to counsel patients on the potential impacts of aging on the act of driving. Future research should examine the reasons for the differences in anticipatory guidance provision found in this study.     

Floodplain Trapping and Cycling Compared to Streambank Erosion of Sediment and Nutrients in an Agricultural Watershed

Floodplains and streambanks can positively and negatively influence downstream water quality through interacting geomorphic and biogeochemical processes. Few studies have measured those processes in agricultural watersheds. We measured inputs (floodplain sedimentation and dissolved inorganic loading), cycling (floodplain soil nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] mineralization), and losses (bank erosion) of sediment, N, and P longitudinally in stream reaches of Smith Creek, an agricultural watershed in the Valley and Ridge physiographic province. All study reaches were net depositional (floodplain deposition > bank erosion), had high N and P sedimentation and loading rates to the floodplain, high soil concentrations of N and P, and high rates of floodplain soil N and P mineralization. High sediment, N, and P inputs to floodplains are attributed to agricultural activity in the region. Rates of P mineralization were much greater than those measured in other studies of nontidal floodplains that used the same method. Floodplain connectivity and sediment deposition decreased longitudinally, contrary to patterns in most watersheds. The net trapping function of Smith Creek floodplains indicates a benefit to water quality. Further research is needed to determine if future decreases in floodplain deposition, continued bank erosion, and the potential for nitrate leaching from nutrient‐enriched floodplain soils could pose a long‐term source of sediment and nutrients to downstream rivers.     

A strategy for the next decade to address data deficiency in neglected biodiversity

Measuring progress toward international biodiversity targets requires robust information on the conservation status of species, which the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species provides. However, data and capacity are lacking for most hyperdiverse groups, such as invertebrates, plants, and fungi, particularly in megadiverse or high-endemism regions. Conservation policies and biodiversity strategies aimed at halting biodiversity loss by 2020 need to be adapted to tackle these information shortfalls after 2020. We devised an 8-point strategy to close existing data gaps by reviving explorative field research on the distribution, abundance, and ecology of species; linking taxonomic research more closely with conservation; improving global biodiversity databases by making the submission of spatially explicit data mandatory for scientific publications; developing a global spatial database on threats to biodiversity to facilitate IUCN Red List assessments; automating preassessments by integrating distribution data and spatial threat data; building capacity in taxonomy, ecology, and biodiversity monitoring in countries with high species richness or endemism; creating species monitoring programs for lesser-known taxa; and developing sufficient funding mechanisms to reduce reliance on voluntary efforts. Implementing these strategies in the post-2020 biodiversity framework will help to overcome the lack of capacity and data regarding the conservation status of biodiversity. This will require a collaborative effort among scientists, policy makers, and conservation practitioners.     

Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity

Assisted migration (AM) is the translocation of species beyond their historical range to locations that are expected to be more suitable under future climate change. However, a relocated population may fail to establish in its donor community if there is high uncertainty in decision-making, climate, and interactions with the recipient ecological community. To quantify the benefit to persistence and risk of establishment failure of AM under different management scenarios (e.g., choosing target species, proportion of population to relocate, and optimal location to relocate), we built a stochastic metacommunity model to simulate several species reproducing, dispersing, and competing on a temperature gradient as temperature increases over time. Without AM, the species were vulnerable to climate change when they had low population sizes, short dispersal, and strong poleward competition. When relocating species that exemplified these traits, AM increased the long-term persistence of the species most when relocating a fraction of the donor population, even if the remaining population was very small or rapidly declining. This suggests that leaving behind a fraction of the population could be a robust approach, allowing managers to repeat AM in case they move the species to the wrong place and at the wrong time, especially when it is difficult to identify a species’ optimal climate. We found that AM most benefitted species with low dispersal ability and least benefited species with narrow thermal tolerances, for which AM increased extinction risk on average. Although relocation did not affect the persistence of nontarget species in our simple competitive model, researchers will need to consider a more complete set of community interactions to comprehensively understand invasion potential.     

Improving simulations of sulfate aerosols during winter haze over Northern China: the impacts of heterogeneous oxidation by NO<Subscript>2</Subscript>

We implemented the online coupled WRF-Chem model to reproduce the 2013 January haze event in North China, and evaluated simulated meteorological and chemical fields using multiple observations. The comparisons suggest that temperature and relative humidity (RH) were simulated well (mean biases are–0.2K and 2.7%, respectively), but wind speeds were overestimated (mean bias is 0.5 m?s^–1). At the Beijing station, sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were overpredicted and sulfate concentrations were largely underpredicted, which may result from uncertainties in SO₂ emissions and missing heterogeneous oxidation in current model. We conducted three parallel experiments to examine the impacts of doubling SO₂ emissions and incorporating heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO₂ by nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) on sulfate formation during winter haze. The results suggest that doubling SO₂ emissions do not significantly affect sulfate concentrations, but adding heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO₂ by NO₂ substantially improve simulations of sulfate and other inorganic aerosols. Although the enhanced SO₂ to sulfate conversion in the HetS (heterogeneous oxidation by NO₂) case reduces SO₂ concentrations, it is still largely overestimated by the model, indicating the overestimations of SO₂ concentrations in the North China Plain (NCP) are mostly due to errors in SO₂ emission inventory.

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Improving simulations of sulfate aerosols during winter haze over Northern China: the impacts of heterogeneous oxidation by NO2

Incorporating the missing heterogeneous oxidation of S(IV) by NO₂ into the WRF-Chem model. Sulfate production is not sensitive to increase in SO₂ emission. The newly added reaction reproduces sulfate concentrations well during winter haze. We implemented the online coupled WRF-Chem model to reproduce the 2013 January haze event in North China, and evaluated simulated meteorological and chemical fields using multiple observations. The comparisons suggest that temperature and relative humidity (RH) were simulated well (mean biases are -0.2K and 2.7%, respectively), but wind speeds were overestimated (mean bias is 0.5 m?s⁻¹). At the Beijing station, sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were overpredicted and sulfate concentrations were largely underpredicted, which may result from uncertainties in SO₂ emissions and missing heterogeneous oxidation in current model. We conducted three parallel experiments to examine the impacts of doubling SO₂ emissions and incorporating heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO₂ by nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) on sulfate formation during winter haze. The results suggest that doubling SO₂ emissions do not significantly affect sulfate concentrations, but adding heterogeneous oxidation of dissolved SO₂ by NO₂ substantially improve simulations of sulfate and other inorganic aerosols. Although the enhanced SO₂ to sulfate conversion in the HetS (heterogeneous oxidation by NO₂) case reduces SO₂ concentrations, it is still largely overestimated by the model, indicating the overestimations of SO₂ concentrations in the North China Plain (NCP) are mostly due to errors in SO₂ emission inventory.     

Mass mortality and slow recovery of Diadema antillarum: Could compromised immunity be a factor?

Long-spined sea urchins (Diadema antillarum-a) began dying in January 1983 and over the next year virtually disappeared from the Caribbean. Decades later, Diadema densities remain low, with only very limited recovery in some areas. Ecological extinction of Diadema is a factor in the transformation of coral to barren algae-covered rock that has occurred in the Caribbean during the past 25 years. Working with sea urchins collected from St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands, we asked whether the immune system of Diadema differs from those of other common Caribbean urchins that did not experience the die-off. Using isolated coelomocytes, we tested humoral responses of the urchins with classic stimulators in numerous humoral immune assays. All coelomocytes responded to stimulators—with one notable and statistically significant exception—D. antillarum did not respond to lipopolysaccharide. Our results indicate that Diadema may have a weakness in its humoral defense response that is independent of local stressors and may help explain why Caribbean Diadema was vulnerable to the 1983 epidemic and has shown slow and limited recovery since then.     

Mineral licks: motivational factors for visitation and accompanying disease risk at communal use sites of elk and deer

Free-ranging cervids acquire most of their essential minerals through forage consumption, though occasionally seek other sources to account for seasonal mineral deficiencies. Mineral sources occur as natural geological deposits (i.e., licks) or as anthropogenic mineral supplements. In both scenarios, these sources commonly serve as focal sites for visitation. We monitored 11 licks in Rocky Mountain National Park, north-central Colorado, using trail cameras to quantify daily visitation indices (DVI) and soil consumption indices (SCI) for Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) during summer 2006 and documented elk, mule deer, and moose (Alces alces) visiting licks. Additionally, soil samples were collected, and mineral concentrations were compared to discern levels that explain rates of visitation. Relationships between response variables; DVI and SCI, and explanatory variables; elevation class, moisture class, period of study, and concentrations of minerals were examined. We found that DVI and SCI were greatest at two wet, low-elevation licks exhibiting relatively high concentrations of manganese and sodium. Because cervids are known to seek Na from soils, we suggest our observed association of Mn with DVI and SCI was a likely consequence of deer and elk seeking supplemental dietary Na. Additionally, highly utilized licks such as these provide an area of concentrated cervid occupation and interaction, thus increasing risk for environmental transmission of infectious pathogens such as chronic wasting disease, which has been shown to be shed in the saliva, urine, and feces of infected cervids.     

The evolution of large and small-scale structures in Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities

To better understand the dynamics of Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities in environmental flows, their evolution is investigated using direct numerical simulations (DNS). Two-dimensional DNS is used to examine the large-scale and small-scale structures of the instability at high Reynolds and Prandtl numbers that represent real environmental flows. The semi-analytical model of Corcos and Sherman (J Fluid Mech 73:241–264, 1976) is used to explain the physics of these simulations prior to saturation of the KH billow, and also provide a computationally efficient prediction of the vortex dynamics of the instability. The DNS results show that the large-scale structure of the billow does not depend on the Reynolds number for sufficiently high Reynolds numbers. The billow structure reveals a less straightforward dependence on the Prandtl number. Predictions of the model of Corcos and Sherman (J Fluid Mech 73:241–264, 1976) improve as Reynolds number and Prandtl number increase. The small-scale structure of the vorticity and density fields vary with both Reynolds and Prandtl numbers. Three-dimensional DNS of KH flows and their transition to turbulence are used to study small length scales. Based on the thickness of the braid, a simple method is introduced to estimate the Batchelor scale, which can be used as a guide for the resolution required for the direct numerical simulation of two and three-dimensional Kelvin–Helmholtz flow fields.